Sunday, July 24, 2011

What I want to see in the State of the Nation Address

Dear insansapinas,

Homeless family with mother smoking

This news tells us what to expect from the State of the Nation Address of President Noynoy Aquino in July 25:

More than motherhood statements, “undisputed facts and figures” on gains and plans.These are what can be expected from President Benigno Aquino III’s State of the Nation Address (Sona) on Monday, the “overarching themes” of which will center on his administration’s accomplishments in its anticorruption campaign and on what he intends to do in the coming year, MalacaƱang said Saturday.
Even with the use of facts and figures, the speech writer can paint a rosy picture of the state of the nation by presenting selective statistics only . IBON warned:

The public deserves better than a selective presentation of facts and figures in the president’s first year, and is hoping to be given a whole picture of the state of the nation. This is the challenge for President Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino issued today by non-government research group IBON.
 What do I expect therefore from the SONA? Being an economics graduate and with economic managers who can explain to him the significance of the figures of economic indicators, the President will not have difficulty using statistics to get his message across.

Like how's  the economy doing?

Shall he present the GDP, GNP that measure this output of the nation for one year?

What is the GDP for the first Quarter of 2011? How is it compared with the GDP for the first quarter of 2010. Was there a change? What was the change? upward? downward?

A growth rate does not necessarily mean that the economy is doing good. For example, the growth rate is 5 per cent for the first quarter 2011 compared to first 2010. The economy is slowing down if the  growth rate between the first quarters 2010 and 2009  was 8 per cent. How is it compared with the expectation of the international financial agencies?

Parang batang lumaki nga pero ang paglaki ay mas mahina kaysa paglaki ng nakaraang taon.

Since GDP can be a measurement of the expenditures, namely personal, government,
exports and imports. one can discern if government is spending to encourage production   The government and private sectors invest in fixed durable equipment. A hike in the investment from the private sector reflects confidence in the government and the positive outlook of being able to recover its investments. A downward trend is an indicator of hesitation of the private sector to put in money in capital formation. 

An upward trend in the investment of the government shows its determination to look beyond the current administration in terms of benefits from the projects. A downward trend indicates either of the following:

1. the government does not have any projects for job creation and production growth.

2. the government is spending money for other purposes.

3. the government is to busy doing something else

4. the government has no money

In terms of expenditures on imports and exports, the government can explain to us why the exports expenditures may be going down while imports are accelerating. Are there negative balance of trades with different countries? Are we importing more than we are exporting.Are  the excessive dollar reserves affecting our foreign currency exchange rates?

GDP can be expressed also according to its  Industrial origin. The President does not have to itemize them. He can identifly which among the three major industries are showing growth namely, agriculture, services and industry?

The news about rice supply is confusing. One day, the newspaper would publish that we have enough and another day that we will have shortage. How's the production? Are there importations due to deficit in the supply? Ano ba talaga pare?

The economy of the nation is not measured by  how many people get hungry and not hungry using a survey. The economic ills of the nation are not solved by making "sampal" to the poor of a check which they use to pay for their vices. Surveys are subjective especially if the questionaires are so worded to get the desired results. Sampling may also be faulty.  Distribute the survey forms to a sector of a society that does not get hungry and you will see a different result when it is distributed to the marginalized sector.

Graft and Corruption

The speech should mention who were brought to courts for graft and corruption cases and not merely because they failed to pay their taxes. It is time to show them that courts decide the cases and not the media. 

The current administration should not spare the officials appointed by the government. If they are accusd of graft and corruption, their cases should not be hushed -hushed like the high profile ranking officials whose mansion was no longer the item for discussion in the media.

What are the plans of te government--short, medium and long-term?
What is not taking off? How's the plan last year. What is the percentage of implementation?

There are many more but let us wait for tomorrow.


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